Class Session VII>
I. Quiz on the Next Industrial Revolution
II. What We’ve Covered So Far
A. System Earth
B. Future Scenarios
C. The Nacirema & Ishmael
D. The Power of Stories and Legacy
E. Enacting a Story>Decision Making>Information and Knowledge
What is the goal for what we’ve
covered so far?
The world, your world, doesn’t have to be the way it is and YOU have the power
to change it. The history of the world is filled with examples of how one
individual changed the course of history.
III. To Change Your World Takes Knowledge – What is Knowledge?
To “know” something is to have
some insight or knowledge about it. Knowledge seeks to know or define reality,
phenomenon in the world around us. Humans have been defining
reality and gaining knowledge about their world ever since the first human
stepped onto the plains of
Not everyone gathers information
about the world in the same way. Similarly, not everyone “knows” the world in
the same way. Researchers have studied different "learning styles,"
and also believe that women and men may learn, and therefore “know” things in
different ways. Following is a list of different ways of “knowing” or defining
reality. Each of them “knows” or defines reality in a different way.
1. Science (experimental approach
to the physical universe)
2. Philosophy (the abstract mind)
3. Rationalism/Skepticism (not
accepting realities that are not immediately evident)
4. Religion (faith in divine
revelation and social tradition)
5. Mysticism (experiences based
on spiritual techniques)
6. Esotericism (intuitive
speculation on cosmological world-views)
7. Occultism (using
psycho-physical techniques to access hidden realities)
8. Gnosis (innate wisdom and
understanding)
Each of the eight fields of
knowledge goes about defining reality in a different way. Science in itself is
simply an experimental method for understanding physical reality. Science works
in the following way:
1. Science begins by making
observations about the physical world.
2. Once these observations are
made, science tries to understand why the observed reality is the way it is and
a theory or hypothesis is developed.
3. The hypothesis is then tested,
usually in an experimental mode in which certain forces or factors are
controlled while others are introduced into the controlled experiment or
environment created by the scientists.
4. The results to the experiment
are observed and recorded. Science then seeks to validate the results through
several more trials of the experiment. If the results are reproducible, then
some knowledge about the physical world is gained.
The experimental nature of
science represents a fundamental aspect of the nature of science and reflects
how science tends to differ from other modes of knowing. Through scientific
experimentation, understanding of the physical world is gained. Science is not
as good, however, at defining or understanding non-physical realities of the
universe.
IV. To Change Your World Will Take Changes in Technology
As we discussed, environmental
science is the discipline that concerns itself with protection of the
environment, or nature, largely from the unintended impacts of human societies.
The level of impact that an individual, group, or society has on the
environment is a function of three variables or phenomenon. They are as
follows:
Number One - The population or
number of people utilizing the natural environmental or resources. The more people
there are in a place, the more likely that environmental impact will occur.
Number Two - The greater the
level of consumption of natural resources -- such as water, energy, minerals,
land, rocks and trees - the greater the likely environmental impact.
Number Three
The type of tools, techniques, processes, or technologies used by humans to
provide a service or material good also affects the level of environmental
impact.
The “formula” for environmental
impact can be expressed as follows:
EI = Population X Consumption X
Technology
Env. Impact (Number of People)
(Amount of Resources Consumed) (Tools or Techniques Used)
While this formula seems
simplistic, it is nonetheless a valuable tool for understanding the
relationship human activity and environmental impact.
Typically, the word technology
conjures up images of complex machinery or equipment that requires electricity
and is built by engineers. Computers and spacecraft often come to mind when
conjuring up technology. For the purposes of this course, the term technology
is used a bit more broadly. Technology refers to any tool, technique or process
that provides a service. The chair you are sitting in provides a service and is,
therefore, classified as technology, as is the pen on your desk as well as the
shoes on your feet (if you’re wearing any). Hammers, books, lights, clothes
dryers, contact lenses, spoons, manilla folders, and
picture frames can all be considered technology.
All technologies provide a
service, otherwise we wouldn’t use them. Even the paper weight on a desk is
providing a service, as is the desk itself, the papers on the desk, and the
paper clips in the middle drawer. Technologies are not all the same with regards
to the service they provide. We all know that a Mercedes Benz sportster is likely to get you farther down in a shorter
period of time than a Dodge Neon. Technologies differ, therefore, not only with
respect to the service they provide, but all with regards to the types and
amounts of resources consumed, as well how their use or disposal impacts the
environment. As we’ll discuss more fully later in the class, compact
fluorescent light bulbs provide the same number of lumens, or light energy, as
Thomas Alva Edison’s incandescent light bulb, but use only ¼ the amount of
energy. For just about every technology, there are alternatives that can save
money, consume fewer resources, or result in less environmental impact.
G. >The Next Industrial Revolution
In the film, “the
Next Industrial Revolution”, Bill McDonough talks a lot about “intention” and
the power of intention. More and more,
people are focusing on what their intentions are. Intentions are a bit like how
we’ve talked about “stories” and “scenarios”. It’s the energy of what you put
out there.
To Bill McDonough, design signals
intention and if your design leaves you with unintended consequences, those
consequences could still be considered as part of your intention. The design
objectives, or intention, of the Next Industrial Revolution are fecundity
(fertile, abundant growth), excitement/fun!, generativity/creativity, and sustainability.
McDonough divides the material
world into biological and technical nutrients. Biological nutrients are also
known as products of consumption by living organisms and so they must be safe to
consume. These include plant-based and biodegradable materials in products such
as chemicals, shampoos, and packaging materials. Technical nutrients include metals
and some polymers found in cars, washing machines, and televisions. These are
known as products of service. Purchasers of such products usually aren’t
interested in “owning” the materials in the product,
all they want is the service of the product. Go to http://www.mindfully.org/Sustainability/Hawken-Reusing-Waste.htm
for more on products of service.
H. Global Population Overview
Our best estimates suggest that
the global human population is currently slightly more than 6.3 billion people,
which is a big number and sounds like a lot. This number by itself, however,
does not convey enough information about the dynamics of population change to
understand how population change relates to environmental impact, particularly
at the global scale. To get a better sense of population and environmental
impact, it’s important to get a historical perspective of population growth.
In addition to knowing the number
of people, it is also important to assess how long those people where living.
If there were two societies, each with the same number of people, but if the
members of one society lived longer then those of the other, the longer lived
society would have greater environmental impact, simply because there
population would increase faster. To assess length of life, demographers use
the term life expectancy. Average life expectancy refers to the amount of time
an individual could expect to live if born at a certain time. For example, the
current global average life expectancy for babies born today is 67 years,
(http://www.eh.net/bookreviews/library/0448.shtml) though this varies
significantly from country to country. Japan ranks highest with an average life
expectancy of 74.5 years, while countries such as
Snapshot - In the Beginning
Scientists believe the human
species dates back some 3 to 4 million years. No one knows how many humans or
human-like creatures were on the earth at that time, whether it was one, two,
or a spaceship full of aliens. It’s likely we may never know and for the
purposes of our discussion, it doesn’t really matter. Scientists do believe,
however, that for more than 99 percent of this time, or until the dawn of
agriculture around 10,000 to 8000 B.C., human population numbered probably less
than 10 million. It is also thought that our early ancestors, however many
there were, lived between 18 to 20 years on average.
While there is some disagreement
about exactly when human populations began, and how long folks lived, is pretty
safe to say that for a long, long, long time there were not very many people on
the planet, relative to today’s numbers, and that these people didn’t live very
long.
Snapshot 10,000
B.C.
There is reasonable scientific
consensus that humans made the decision to become agriculturalists that is to
plant seeds rather than gather wild plant plants, about 10,000 to 8,000 B.C.
Generally, it is thought that there were around 10 million people on earth at
this time and that life expectancy was between 18 to 20 years.
Snapshot 0 AD
Global Population - It is thought
that there were around 250 million people on earth.
Life Expectancy – In the
Snapshot - 1830
Global Population - 1 billion
people
Life Expectancy - Rural
Snapshot - 1930
Global Population - 2 billion
people
Life Expectancy – World Average -
50 years
Snapshot - 1960
Global Population - 3 billion
people
Life Expectancy – World Average -
52.4 years
Snapshot - 1976
Global Population - 4 billion
people
Life Expectancy – World Average -
59.8 years
Snapshot - 1986
Global Population - 5 billion
people
Life Expectancy – World Average -
63 years
Snapshot - October 12, 1999
Global Population – 6 billion
people
Life Expectancy – World Average -
65 years
Snapshot – February 23, 2005
Global Population - 6,420,560,753 – (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/)
Life Expectancy - World Average -
66 years
Snapshot - 2025 (20 years from
now)
Global Population - 8 billion (http://www.jhuccp.org/pr/m15/m15chap1_2.shtml)
Life Expectancy - World Average -
72.4 years
Snapshot 2050 (47 years from now)
Global Population - 9.3 billion (http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/POP/variables/363.htm)
Life Expectancy - World Average -
76 years (http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/POP/variables/379.htm)
The population of the world has
just about doubled between 1960 and today. In addition to the large global
population increases since 1960, average life expectancy has also increased.
Global average life expectancy is expected to continue to increase as
breakthroughs in medicine continue to occur and new medical practices and
technology spread throughout the world. The global population is projected to
continue to increase, though the rate of increase is slowing. Increases in life
expectancy, which is a good thing (we all want to live longer) also yield
increases in consumption simply because individuals are living longer.
By the year 2025, twenty years
from today, global population is projected to increase to 8 and, by 2050, the United Nations forecasts a worldwide population of
9.3 billion. Can the earth support 9 billion humans? The long-term ability of a
area or region, in this case the earth, to support the organisms that live
there without degrading the region's natural resources is known as “carrying
capacity”. Despite a tremendous amount of attention devoted to this topic, no
one truly knows the “carrying capacity” of the earth. Some suggest that the
earth may be able to support two or three times the current global population.
Others believe that we have already exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity.
Population and carrying capacity do not have a direct relationship.
Environmental impact is also a function of consumption and by the technology
supporting that consumption. In the next set of notes, we’ll look at
consumption.